Goddamit! An Adam to Zoe of the left's losses since Saturday

Talk about a 3rd May!

The great American black comedienne Wanda Sykes has a joke about Tiger Woods. When he’s starting out, he’s that surprising thing, a champion black golfer. As he ascends, his Cherokee heritage is added. By the time he hits the pinnacle, the Thai side of his family has become uppermost. ‘Man’s getting goddam less black by halves before our eyes!’.Thus, for the left, the 2025 election. Goddamit whatever happened to Saturday night? We were all so happy. We knew Labor hated the left and would turn on us, but for a moment we could luxuriate in the glory of determination. Whatever the attractions of minority Labor government, this win had smashed the Coalition.

Aaaaaaaaaaand, now us as well. The Greens decimated, leaving Penny Allman-Payne of Ryan the sole Green in the House, who must be almost wishing she’d lost, and did not have to step into the lions’ den alone. Adam Bandt gone, Samantha Ratnam falling short. Tim Wilson has returned like one of those floaty turds after an oily meal, that grins up at you from the bowl, round and shiny and will not flush, your own personal fatberg. Monique Ryan is just hanging on in Kooyong, after a late ballot surge. In Tasmania, Lambie is in trouble, not to Hanson junior in One Nation, but to Labor getting an extra Senator in the sixth slot. As annoyingly vacuous as the Lambiekins can be at times, that would be a loss. We were so black for a while.

Labor is now charging ahead to cross the ninety seat threshold. Ninety seats! Ha, we were all wittering on about how we were living under the last majority government ever. How? How? How did this all happen? OK, a couple of news gobbets below, but up here, the quickfire round. Word is that most of the polls were so wrong, because they made the wrong adjustment. All polls adjust, typically by putting key extra questions in, and using the established gap between recorded party voting, and that question to establish a variance from an expected ratio. Works pretty well. But this time, the question used was about how respondents voted on the Voice referendum, which was used to adjust the raw-polled Labor vote down.

The method wasn’t wrong, but the choice and the assumptions underpinning it were. They assumed a stronger role of ‘values’ and ‘culture’ would determine voter preference. As I noted last post, that simply didn’t carry. And so most polls save for a few (yes, yes, you Redbridge) missed the strong swing to Labor out there. This was especially so in the seats that the Sky News Outsiders peanut gallery have been urging the Liberals to focus on, at the expense of teal seats. More fool us, again, not asking how the polling/democracy sausage is made.

news

It’s not easy being….argggh stop using that song.

The Greens, what happened? The processes are complex? The Greens more or less kept their primary vote overall, at 12%, which may be, give or take 1% or so, all the Greens will ever get. They are, repeat, the organic party of the knowledge class, about 25% of the electorate, and particularly of the humanistic-trained within that. (no party ever gets all its class). In the last three years they have veered class politics left, and even gone a little punky. That is not for show (despite the acid reflux cynicism of laughing clown heads like David Crowe in The Age); the left-Greens really want to stand up for the poor and powerless whose ranks Labor is swelling. And against the brutal destruction of Gaza. Nothing could be more Green. That, it seems, increased their vote among Gen Z. But decreased their vote amongst Gen Xers and Boomers, some of whom may have been a bit punky themselves back in the day, but are now more interested in the smooth systems management of social life, against the gonzo headbanging of the Coalition. Apparently, all very rough and first look, these entrances and exits pretty much evened out the vote. Could they have kept the Olds and gained the zoomers? Practically, it's impossible to know. But without the overall lift they needed, to 14 or 15%, there was no cushion to individual loss. In Melbourne, Bandt got hit with a redistribution, losing the freakshow of lower Brunswick and gaining staid South Yarra and Docklands, and, as he noted (some excuses are true), lost preferences when the Libs not Labor hit third place. In Brisbane, a very red dominated party apparatus assumed they had broken through from social movement politics to class politics. They hadn't. They called out to the Green Bridge (the Peter Beattie built bridge that connects Woolloongabba and West End to St Lucia, creating a single uni/knowledge ‘smart’ zone) and the Green Bridge killed them. What can be done? That is a topic for another time.

news

Lambie to the slaught - no we’ve used that one too.

The hitherto unsinkable Jacqui Lambie looks in some trouble, sitting on about 0.5 of a quota, as the Tas Senate count continues. She usually hits about 0.67, or 30,000 primaries out of the 45,000 needed for a quota. She then makes up the rest with Liberal over quota preferences. But the Libs preferenced One Nation over Hanson this time, just when Lambie needed them most. Why the primary drop? One would have to say that it might be Lambies salmon farming stance - not anti, but demanding major changes to this polluting, wrecking industry - contrasted with Labor’s absolute commitment to the shonks and sharks who run salmon to have the right to fuck up all the bays they want.

The stance sat oddly with Labor's politics. There’s some cross-class anti-salmon industry feeling, especially in the Tas North West, Lambie’s base, but there's also huge support for an industry which provides goodish jobs on broke-ass island. Lambie’s position is the right one, but it’s a product of her subcontracting her politics to the greenish leftish Australia Institute to staff her, a decision she made after the first crop of right wingers she picked turned out to be weirdos and dank memes. It's always been a leeetle bit of a con; Lambie's base really don't know what she's advocating. The burnished Burnie gang may have got burnt this time.

news

Z’oh!

How did Zoe Daniel lose to the human equivalent of the juicy skin tag you don't burn off because it feels so good to squeeze the fat out? That story will have to wait till tmrw….

—--

charivari

How Melbourne works, pt 233

Garry Morgan, pollster, resplendent in a wide brim black felt hat, gave a press conference at his favourite East Melbourne cafe this week, simply by yelling his thoughts to the whole room. Most of this was movements in his share portfolio, read off his phone, cheery encomia to three people - ‘looks like we got rid of Adam Bandt! - how he avoided a $6 million loss on a CBD building sale, and an exchange with a shopowner popping in:

GM: How'd you like the result?

Shopowner: not good

GM: Not good?????

SO: they're still putting traffic calmers in Powlett street (all politics is very local in East Melbourne)

GM: I SPOKE TO [mayor] NICK REECE LAST WEEK ABOUT THAT!

SO: They're still doing it

GM: Don't worry ILL SPEAK TO NICK REECE ABOUT IT NEXT WEEK!

Nick, call your office, the carpenter is here.